‘One of the most insightful and thought-provoking books I have ever read on the most important relationship in the world: the US and China. If Graham Allison is right — and I think he is — China and the US must heed the lessons in this superb study in order to build a strategic relationship that avoids a war which neither side would win.’
General (Ret.) David Petraeus, Chairman of the KKR Global Institute, former Director of the CIA, and former Commander of US Central Command
‘Thucydides’s Trap identifies a cardinal challenge to world order: the impact of a rising power on a ruling power. I read the book with great interest. I can only hope that the US-China relationship becomes the fifth case to resolve itself peacefully, rather than the 13th to result in war.’
Henry Kissinger, former United States Secretary of State
‘A provocative thesis on one of today's most pressing foreign policy issues and a page turner of the first order, Destined For War is a must read. Allison writes with the propulsive narrative drive appropriate for such an immediate and danger-fraught topic.’
Christopher Reich, bestselling author of Invasion of Privacy, The Patriots’ Club and Numbered Account
‘Do China and America want war? No. Might they be compelled into conflict by severe structural stress? Yes. Thankfully, Allison charts an essential course to avoid a catastrophic collision. Destined for War will be studied and debated for decades.’
Kevin Rudd, former Prime Minister of Australia
‘An important new book.’
Financial Times
‘Steeped in history and propelled by one of the most transformative developments in modern times — the rise of China — Graham Allison has written a gripping book that decision-makers and citizens alike must read, digest, and act upon. Allison combines a historian’s depth of knowledge with a policymaker’s real world, practical understanding. He mines the recent and distant past to offer essential insights into the future — in so doing, changing the way we think about how America should act in the present.’
Samantha Power, former US Ambassador to the United Nations
‘A hugely respected theorist and practitioner in the field of contemporary national security, Graham Allison is also a master of applied history. You can bet that China's leaders will read Allison's warnings about Thucydides's Trap. I only wish I could be as sure about America's leaders. But every informed citizen should buy a copy.’
Niall Ferguson, senior fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and author of The War of the World
‘In Destined for War, Graham Allison has again done a great service. With an incisive review of the wars of yesterday and a deep understanding of today’s international politics, Allison has provided American and Chinese leaders not just with a stark warning about the consequences of falling into the Thucydides’s Trap, but also the insight to avoid it. For policymakers, scholars, and citizens on both sides of the Pacific Ocean, Destined for War is essential reading.’
Ash Carter, former US Secretary of Defense
‘In dissecting — and suggesting ways to bend — the dangerous arc of the US-China relationship, Graham Allison has written the most important foreign policy book of our time. This book should immediately be read by our new president. Placing Destined for War atop every government organisation’s reading list offers our generation of leaders the best hope for avoiding stumbling into Thucydides’s notorious trap.’
Admiral (Ret.) Sandy Winnefeld, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
‘Graham Allison is the Paul Revere of the nuclear age. He has been ringing the alarm for years trying to stir us from our slumber. In his brilliant book, Allison provides us with a heart stopping look into a future that may end as abruptly as the past began.’
William Cohen, former US Secretary of Defense
‘Drawing on a sweeping command of history and a keen ability to distill the essence of an argument, Graham Allison has provided the necessary guide for how to manage Sino-American relations into an uncertain future. Essential, even indispensable reading for every diplomat — and financier or businessman — that contemplates China and its relations with the world.’
Kurt Campbell, CEO of The Asia Group and former US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs
‘Destined for War is a must-read for anyone concerned about US-China relations, or peace. And by all who care about the ways US foreign policy is formed — and ought to be formed. A gifted combination of scholarship with truly accessible writing.’
Amitai Etzioni, professor of International Affairs at The George Washington University, and author of Avoiding War with China
‘Reading Destined for War and drawing from its lessons could help to save the lives of millions of people.’
Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum
‘If any book can stop a world war, it is this one. Graham Allison makes a clear and compelling case that serious conflict between the United States and China is looming, but not inevitable. This gripping book is a must read for policymakers in both nations as well as the general public.’
Sam Nunn, co-chairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and former US Senator
‘Graham Allison is the quintessential scholar-practitioner. He has served at the highest levels of government and the academy, and is one of the principal protagonists of ‘applied history’ worldwide. His latest book brings historically-informed political science to bear on the preeminent strategic question of our age: whether the rise of China can unfold without major war. A work of reflection rather than prediction, its conclusions are nevertheless deeply disturbing. Surely another classic in the making, Destined for War is a brilliant example of ‘thinking in time’, which — as the author shows — is against us.’
Brendan Simms, author of Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy
‘[Destined for War] sounds a useful, even important warning call.’
Max Hastings, The Sunday Times
‘I hope people like Jeff Bezos read this timely book and resolve to build the political forces we need.’
Dominic Cummings, The Spectator
‘Thought-provoking and very readable.’
Roland White, The Sunday Times
‘As a single volume on the shape of the gathering rivalry and co-operation between the United States and China, this book is to be highly recommended. It is clearly written with a popular audience in mind. As such it can join the ranks of a number of such books that explain a wide range of complex concepts and historical episodes in a way that the layperson can readily engage with.’
NZ International Review
‘[A]rgue[s] persuasively that adjusting to this global power shift will require great skill on both sides if conflagration is to be avoided ... helpfully illustrated with maps and charts...with wide-ranging, erudite case studies that span human history ... this fine book show[s] that China intends to evict the United States from Asia in order to restore its dominance over what it considers its historic spheres of influence. Unfortunately, Washington is poorly prepared to deal with a China that strategises in terms of the symbolic undercurrents and sensitivities illuminated so dramatically by Allison.’
Judith Shapiro, The New York Times Book Review
‘[A] brief but far-reaching book in which potted history is incisively deployed ... One of the many strengths of Destined for War is the restoration of the late Samuel Huntington’s 'Clash of Civilisations' theory, disparaged in the mid-1990s but subliminally gaining force by the day. Mr. Allison approvingly paraphrases Huntington’s notion that 'the Western myth of universal values' is 'not just naive but inimical to other civilisations, particularly the Confucian one with China at its centre.’
Robert D. Kaplan, The Wall Street Journal
‘Destined for War is a ‘must read’ for those who care about the long-term national security and economic interests of the United States.’
Dan Sullivan, United States Senator (R-AK)
‘Graham Allison, with his usual conceptual clarity, uses the “Thucydides’s Trap” to light up the big question of our day: how can the dominant power (the United States) avoid war with the rising power (China)? Allison provides historical perspective, while presenting the U.S. perspective that he knows from the inside and the Chinese perspective that he has studied with uncommon depth.’
Ezra Vogel, author of Deng Xiaoping and the transformation of China
‘Managing our strategic rivalry with a rising China will be the number one challenge for US foreign policy in the decades ahead. The stakes are high. Historical precedents are ominous. Some think conflict is inevitable. Others dismiss that conclusion as simplistic. This seminal book provides the reader both with a fascinating excursion through history, and with the conceptual basis for thinking intelligently about an issue that, for better or worse, will profoundly affect the future of the United States.’
J. Stapleton Roy, former US ambassador to China
‘As Destined for War demonstrates, recognising the Thucydidean stress between the US and China is far from appeasement. Rather, Graham Allison shows why it is the fundamental starting point for a successful American strategy to deal with the rise of Chinese power that both upholds our vital national interests and avoids war.’
Ambassador Robert D. Blackwill, Henry Kissinger Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations
‘Destined for War by Graham Allison informs the moment like Guns of August did for Kennedy in [the] Cuban Missile Crisis. Important lessons.’
Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs
‘Graham Allison has written what I think will be the definitive book on the relationship between China and the United States.’
David Rubenstein, co-founder and co-executive Chairman of The Carlyle Group
‘The reason Destined for War is such an important book is that it asks: if China, with its current form of government and economic arrangement, rises to be twice as big as the United States, spending twice as much on everything including its military, then what happens? Most people do not want to accept that this scenario is possible, let alone even contemplate what happens … If war happens, it would be an all-out catastrophe. So we need to do everything we possibly can to avoid it.’
Li Lu, founder and chairman of Himalaya Capital Management
‘Graham Allison has articulated an idea known as the “Thucydides Trap”. It states that, through history, the rise of an emerging power very often creates fear and anxiety among established powers, which can (in the worst-case scenario) lead to war. Schwarzman Scholars was designed to help defuse those tensions and create a more peaceful world.’
Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone Group
‘Might Destined for War be the policy book of the year? When Xi Jinping declares that the story in Graham Allison’s book is serious enough to compel our attention, then we need to study the arguments in it. Deftly presented, clearly structured, and with a fine concluding exploration of the endless historical debate between great forces and contingency, Destined for War seems itself destined for much attention, argument, and constant classroom use.’
Paul Kennedy, author of The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers
‘Allison's book is essential reading both for the content and its impact. It is already being circulated in the White House and politburo, and will no doubt be added to political science reading lists in universities around the globe … Allison calls Obama's Asia pivot ‘using an extra strength aspirin to treat cancer.’ With this book, we might finally be shifting to chemotherapy.’
Crispin Rovere, author of The Trump Phenomenon
‘Read this book. You cannot get a better introduction to the dilemmas the US faces in its China policy or to the methods of applied history in understanding current affairs.’
Arne Westad, author of Restless Empire: China and the world since 1750
‘A pertinent study of the relationship between the United States and China … While the author offers numerous examples of how a fatal confrontation could erupt between the U.S. and China (e.g., the move for independence by Taiwan), he closes with a set of calming strategies to defuse tensions. A timely, reasoned treatise by a keen observer and historian.’ STARRED REVIEW
Kirkus Reviews
‘Allison's scholarship pulls historic examples forward vividly and efficiently, and as he gets closer to our time, he enriches the narrative with a detailed account of America's emergence at the beginning of the 20th century … Allison raises critical issues with a sense of both drama and history. His prose should alarm serious American thinkers.’
Michael Hayden, former director of CIA and NSA
‘It isn't often that a book comes along that should be mandatory reading for every member of Congress, Cabinet member and, for that matter, any senior governmental official with a connection to foreign policy and national security. But Graham Allison's Destined for War is such a book.’
Charles E. Cook Jr, editor of The Cook Political Report
‘The most comprehensive book to ever tackle the question of not only whether a US-China war is possible, but what steps Washington and Beijing can take to avoid such a calamity … Allison’s efforts in Destined for War will surely be praised, and for good reasons … Allison’s ideas flow easily, no matter how frightening they are … We are finally about to have a real public debate about the very distinct possibility of a war between the US and China.’
Harry Kazianis, director of defense studies at The Center for the National Interest
‘A meditation on the perils of war and the challenging possibilities of peace between these two great powers, this book asks uncomfortable questions, provides few comforting answers, and leaves the reader uneasy with dangerous knowledge … His historical interludes balance thoroughness with concision — sharing fresh anecdotes with the seasoned reader without overwhelming the neophyte … provide[s] a roadmap for serious reflection on a problem of grand proportions.’
Joshua M. Silverstein, The Los Angeles Review of Books
‘Mr Allison does not say that war between China and the United States is inevitable, but he thinks it “more likely than not”. This alarming conclusion is shared by many in Washington, where Mr Allison’s book is causing a stir … China and America could blunder into war in several ways, argues Mr Allison … With Donald Trump in the White House, Mr Allison worries that even a trade war might turn into a shooting war.’
The Economist
‘Allison’s book makes a fascinating and worthwhile contribution to our understanding of the nature of power as a function of the nation-state. Through his analysis of the four case studies in which war was avoided, Allison gives us ‘twelve clues for peace’, including practical examples of how Thucydides’s Trap was avoided. These include insights into the nature of leadership, how power is enacted, the opportunities and entrapments of alliances, and much more.’
Jack Bowers, senior lecturer at Australian National University
‘Hugely influential.’
Niall Ferguson, TLS
